Published July 13, 2026 · Updated with each build
Red Box Watch

A public ledger of red‑boxing — campaign‑site signals to super PACs

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Finding Senate · Montana Republican

Alme, Kurt FINDING

Seat
S-MT-00
Party
REP
Universe reason
contested_primary
FEC receipts
$1,184,127 FEC
Campaign site
https://almeforsenate.com/ (unverified)
Pages scanned
26 · last 2026-07-09

Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing

Detected on https://almeforsenate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/What-Montanans-Need-To-Know-About-Kurt-Alme_5.22.26.pdf  · classifier confidence 0.95 · model claude-sonnet-4-6 (escalated)

The page combines prescribed message themes for specific media channels (TV, streaming, Fox News, OTT, YouTube) with explicit ad-format recommendations (:15 and :30 units) and asset provisioning, all of which are directed at an outside ad buyer rather than voters. The framing 'Montanans watching television and streaming video online need to know' is a channel-segmented directive, not direct voter communication. Taken together, these elements constitute classic red-box guidance for an independent expenditure group.

Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page

  • Montanans watching television and streaming video online need to know that:
    Segments the audience by media channel (TV, streaming) and frames the message as what that audience 'needs to know' — classic media-buy targeting instruction rather than direct voter persuasion.
  • Voters react well to :15 and :30 video advertising units.
    Explicit ad-format guidance (unit lengths) that only makes sense as instruction to an outside ad buyer, not content for voters.
  • Republicans consume information on Broadcast TV, Fox News, and OTT.
    Channel-by-segment media-buy instruction pairing a voter demographic (Republicans) with specific media channels.
  • YouTube video ads provide a good value for reaching voters.
    Platform-specific media-buy recommendation framed as cost-efficiency guidance for an outside spender.
  • Kurt Alme Photos and Video can be found here: https://almeforsenate.com/media/
    Ad-asset provisioning — directing outside groups to creative assets for use in paid advertising.

Independent-expenditure corroboration

FEC Schedule E · 26 filings

Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected (by us) on 2026-07-09; $2,172,787 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate, and $417,614 opposing.

Committee AmountFilingsDate range
S AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION $1,500,071 17 2026-05-06 – 2026-06-24
S AMERICAN MISSION $572,717 2 2026-05-22 – 2026-05-22
O MONTANA FREEDOM PAC $417,614 6 2026-05-07 – 2026-06-11
S MONTANA FREEDOM PAC $100,000 1 2026-05-07 – 2026-05-07

S Supporting O Opposing

Schedule E is corroboration, not the trigger — a filed expenditure is late evidence, and our detection timestamp reflects when we crawled, which can lag the actual posting. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $0. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.