Published July 13, 2026 · Updated with each build
Red Box Watch

A public ledger of red‑boxing — campaign‑site signals to super PACs

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Finding Senate · Michigan Democrat

Stevens, Haley FINDING

Seat
S-MI-00
Party
DEM
Universe reason
contested_primary
FEC receipts
$8,870,471 FEC
Campaign site
https://haleyformi.com (unverified)
Pages scanned
63 · last 2026-07-09

Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing

Detected on https://haleyformi.com/media  · classifier confidence 0.95 · model fireworks/deepseek-v4-flash

The page contains explicit directives for segmented voter groups (e.g., Democratic primary voters in certain media markets, Black voters statewide, Black voters in Detroit) to receive specific messages via mail, YouTube, or tactical mail at defined times. This language is addressed to an outside spender who would execute the media buys, not to voters or the press. The presence of update dates and photo links further supports that this is ongoing guidance for independent expenditure groups.

Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page

  • Democratic primary voters in Media Markets not seeing broadcast ads and Democratic primary voters who have voted in at least 2 of the last 4 elections and are also receiving permanent absentee ballots, should receive mail, echoing the messages delivered on TV.
    Segmented audience with directive to receive mail echoing TV messages — media-buy instruction.
  • Black Democratic primary voters statewide should read and see in their mailboxes and on YouTube how Haley served as chief of staff to President Obama’s auto rescue...
    Directive specifying channel (mail, YouTube) and message for a demographic segment.
  • Once ballots go out and early voting has started, it’s imperative Black voters in the Detroit media market receive tactical mail that encourages voters to return their ballots, vote early in person, and vote on Election Day.
    Timing and geography (Detroit media market) paired with a prescribed call to action — typical red-box guidance.
Archived screenshot of https://haleyformi.com/media
Archived at detectionFull-page screenshot of https://haleyformi.com/media · Raw HTML preserved

Independent-expenditure corroboration

FEC Schedule E · 76 filings

Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected (by us) on 2026-07-09; $22,489,376 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate.

Committee AmountFilingsDate range
S A STRONGER MICHIGAN $12,108,976 24 2026-06-02 – 2026-07-09
S UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') $9,232,573 14 2026-06-09 – 2026-07-08
S CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE $999,999 5 2026-05-11 – 2026-05-27
S BLUE MICHIGAN PAC $84,200 10 2025-06-17 – 2026-01-31
S BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT $29,000 4 2026-01-06 – 2026-02-09
S DEMOCRATIC FUTURE PAC $14,083 4 2026-02-02 – 2026-04-20
S BLUE SHIFT PAC $9,346 3 2026-03-17 – 2026-04-20
S BLUE DEMOCRACY NETWORK $6,412 4 2026-02-17 – 2026-04-20
S DMFI PAC $2,538 5 2025-12-16 – 2026-02-11
S MAJORITY BLUE PAC $1,725 2 2026-04-28 – 2026-05-05
S BLUE MAJORITY MAKERS PAC $523 1 2026-04-30 – 2026-04-30

S Supporting O Opposing

Schedule E is corroboration, not the trigger — a filed expenditure is late evidence, and our detection timestamp reflects when we crawled, which can lag the actual posting. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $3,885. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.