Finding House · Texas Republican
Carlos De La Cruz Jr. FINDING
Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing
Detected on https://www.carlosforcongress.com/_files/ugd/34bf2f_5873a78451e5476b8a2d7140a3d6b494.pdf · classifier confidence 0.92 (escalated)
- First detectedJuly 16, 2026
This memo is addressed 'TO: INTERESTED PARTIES' — the conventional red-box salutation for outside spending groups — and contains explicit directives about what messages to run ('paid, earned, and direct voter contact'), which voter segments to target (very conservative, early voters), and what contrast frames to prosecute, all drawn from internal polling. The content functions as a roadmap for an independent expenditure group to execute a paid media strategy, not as direct voter persuasion or a standard press release.
Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page
The endorsement should be front and center in all paid, earned, and direct voter contact - particularly with the 62% of the electorate that identifies as very conservative, for whom the endorsement functions as the clearest signal of ideological alignment.
Explicit directive specifying paid media channel and targeting a specific voter segment — classic media-buy instruction to an outside spender.Prosecute the immigration frame. The immigration message is tightly correlated with vote switching. Lujan's record on the border is a disqualifying liability with this electorate.
Prescribed message theme written as an instruction ('Prosecute') rather than direct voter persuasion, directing what contrast to run in advertising.Drive the contrast message early. 61% of voters in this survey say they plan to vote early in-person
Timing directive tied to early-vote behavior data — a media-buy timing instruction keyed to a voter segment.Communicating the Trump endorsement and Lujan's radically liberal immigration record early to impact these voters is an imperative.
Directive language ('is an imperative') prescribing message content and timing to reach a specific voter segment, consistent with guidance to an outside group running paid communications.TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
'Interested Parties' is a standard red-box convention for addressing outside spenders/super PACs rather than voters or press.
Plain text of the archived page
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: CARLOS FOR CONGRESS RE: TX-35 SURVEY RESULTS DATE: April 23, 2026 The Carlos for Congress campaign conducted a survey of 400 likely Republican runoff voters in TX-35 from April 13-16, 2026. A majority of the interviews were conducted via cell phones, with additional interviews done via text to web and landline phones. The margin of error is +/-4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. KEY FINDINGS Carlos De La Cruz enters the runoff with a lead that grows dramatically as voters learn about the candidates. Once Trump's endorsement is communicated and Lujan's radical immigration record is exposed, De La Cruz leads by 55 points - a race-defining advantage with a clear path to victory. THE SPECIFICS The Starting Point: De La Cruz Leads in a Low-Information Environment On the initial ballot, Carlos De La Cruz leads John Lujan 38% to 35%, with 27% of voters still undecided. Notably, this lead exists while only 37% of runoff voters are aware that President Trump has made an endorsement in the race. As that information reaches more voters, the numbers move sharply in De La Cruz's favor. The Messaging: Lujan's Record on Immigration Is a Liability That Should Be Exposed Every message tested against John Lujan generated significant negative movement. However, the highest-impact message carried approximately 91% correlation among voters who subsequently switched their vote away from Lujan or switched from undecided to supporting De La Cruz. (Source on immigration) (Source for secondary attack) THE PATH FORWARD The data presents a clear and executable roadmap for the May 26th runoff. • Communicate the Trump endorsement. De La Cruz's lead exists today with only 37% of voters aware of Trump's endorsement. As that number grows, so does the margin. The endorsement should be front and center in all paid, earned, and direct voter contact - particularly with the 62% of the electorate that identifies as very conservative, for whom the endorsement functions as the clearest signal of ideological alignment. • record on the border is a disqualifying liability with this electorate. It provides a clear contrast with President Trump’s endorsement of De La Cruz. • John Lujan’s strength during the primary. Communicating the Trump endorsement and Lujan’s radically liberal immigration record early to impact these voters is an imperative. Voters also must be informed of the date of the runoff election on May 26th. Prosecute the immigration frame. The immigration message is tightly correlated with vote switching. Lujan's Drive the contrast message early. 61% of voters in this survey say they plan to vote early in-person, this was This race is De La Cruz's to win. The electorate is deeply conservative, strongly pro-Trump, and highly responsive to the contrast on immigration. The work ahead is straightforward: make sure every likely runoff voter in TX-35 knows that Carlos De La Cruz has President Trump's complete and total endorsement, and that John Lujan would betray their values on immigration and border security if elected.
Additional page with guidance
Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing — initially classified ambiguous by the automated screen; confirmed on human review
Detected on https://www.carlosforcongress.com/copy-of-privacy-policy · classifier confidence 0.52 (escalated)
- First detectedJuly 16, 2026
- Guidance removedJuly 28, 2026
The page references a 'Messaging Kit' and a 'TX-35 POLLING MEMO,' both of which are classic signals of red-box guidance — prescribing messages and providing polling data that outside groups could use to direct ad buys. However, the actual content of these documents is not visible in the page text (likely hidden or behind a click), so it is impossible to confirm whether the directives are aimed at outside spenders or are simply internal press/voter-facing materials. The presence of 'Media Inquiries' contact info suggests some press-kit function, making the audience genuinely unclear without the underlying document content.
Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page
MESSAGING KIT
A 'Messaging Kit' page label suggests directive content intended to guide outside communicators on what messages to use, which is a positive signal for red-box guidance.TX-35 POLLING MEMO
A polling memo tied to a specific congressional district (TX-35) paired with a messaging kit suggests strategic guidance that could be directed at outside spenders rather than voters.
Plain text of the archived page
Skip to Main Content
ENDORSED BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
HOME
ENDORSEMENTS
MEET CARLOS
MISSION
VOLUNTEER
DONATE
MESSAGING KIT
TX-35 POLLING MEMO
Media Inquiries: press@carlosforcongress.com
DONATE
VOLUNTEER
Carlos De La Cruz is a veteran of the United States Air Force. Use of his military service, rank, job titles, and images does not imply endorsement of the United States Air Force or Department of War.
PAID FOR BY CARLOS FOR CONGRESS
830 North Blvd, Unit 2072, Universal City, Texas 78148
Privacy Policy
Messaging Kit
[hidden/DOM-only content]
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Media Inquiries:
press@carlosforcongress.com
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Independent-expenditure corroboration
FEC Schedule E · 55 filings
Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected on 2026-07-16; $4,703,274 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate, and $12,285 opposing.
| Committee | Amount | Filings | Date range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC | $2,984,643 | 28 | 2026-02-20 – 2026-05-15 |
| S | DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS | $1,232,271 | 10 | 2026-05-15 – 2026-05-21 |
| S | STRONG PAC | $486,361 | 16 | 2026-02-18 – 2026-02-23 |
| O | PROTECT AND SERVE PAC | $12,285 | 1 | 2026-05-18 – 2026-05-18 |
S Supporting O Opposing
FEC filings can be trailing evidence — smaller expenditures may surface only in periodic reports. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $0. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.
Automated screen revision e1 · what is this?