Published July 13, 2026 · Updated with each build
Red Box Watch

A public ledger of red‑boxing — campaign‑site signals to super PACs

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Finding House · Nebraska Democrat

Cavanaugh, John FINDING

Seat
H-NE-02
Party
DEM
Universe reason
contested_primary
FEC receipts
$1,140,783 FEC
Campaign site
https://www.johncavanaugh.org/ (unverified)
Pages scanned
75 · last 2026-07-09

Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing

Detected on https://www.johncavanaugh.org/media  · classifier confidence 0.95 · model fireworks/deepseek-v4-flash

The page contains explicit directives for paid media and mail targeting specific voter segments (25+, all registered Democrats, seniors 60+) with prescribed messages and timing instructions. This is not a standard press kit or voter-facing persuasion page; it is guidance intended for an outside group to execute independent expenditures, meeting the definition of red-boxing.

Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page

  • Voters 25+ need to see on TV and steaming that Denise Powell is a millionaire political operative they call “Dark Money Denise”.
    Directive specifying audience, channel (TV/streaming), and message for paid media.
  • Mail message for all registered Democrats:
    Prescribed mail messaging for a segmented audience, indicating guidance for outside mailers.
  • The timing of mail MUST take that into consideration for those who typically vote early or have requested a ballot.
    Instruction on timing of mailers, a media-buy cue for outside groups.
  • Once the above signal is covered, or for those who prefer to communicate via mail:
    Sequencing of media channels (TV/streaming then mail) typical of red-box guidance.
Archived screenshot of https://www.johncavanaugh.org/media
Archived at detectionFull-page screenshot of https://www.johncavanaugh.org/media · Raw HTML preserved

Independent-expenditure corroboration

FEC Schedule E · 62 filings

Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected (by us) on 2026-07-09; $601,240 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate, and $4,366,062 opposing.

Committee AmountFilingsDate range
O NEW DEMOCRAT MAJORITY $1,470,424 6 2026-04-24 – 2026-04-28
O FIGHT FOR NEBRASKA PAC $1,194,085 30 2026-03-24 – 2026-05-12
O LEAD LEFT PAC $870,450 4 2026-05-05 – 2026-05-05
S CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC $586,500 6 2026-04-20 – 2026-05-05
O EDW ACTION FUND $397,943 4 2026-04-17 – 2026-04-29
O PRO-CHOICE MAJORITY 2026 $242,057 2 2026-05-01 – 2026-05-01
O WOMEN VOTE $187,363 4 2026-04-17 – 2026-04-23
S PROGRESSIVE PROMISE $14,730 1 2026-05-08 – 2026-05-08
O DMFI PAC $3,740 4 2026-04-24 – 2026-04-27
S SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION $10 1 2026-03-19 – 2026-03-19

S Supporting O Opposing

Schedule E is corroboration, not the trigger — a filed expenditure is late evidence, and our detection timestamp reflects when we crawled, which can lag the actual posting. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $0. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.