Published July 13, 2026 · Updated with each build
Red Box Watch

A public ledger of red‑boxing — campaign‑site signals to super PACs

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Finding House · Michigan Democrat

McKinney, Donavan FINDING

Seat
H-MI-13
Party
DEM
Universe reason
contested_primary
FEC receipts
$1,001,640 FEC
Campaign site
https://www.donavanforcongress.com/ (unverified)
Pages scanned
19 · last 2026-07-09

Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing

Detected on https://www.donavanforcongress.com/media  · classifier confidence 0.95 · model fireworks/deepseek-v4-flash

The page contains detailed, segmented messaging guidance with timing, channel, and geographic instructions that are clearly intended for an outside group to execute paid advertising. It includes audience-specific directives ('White voters need to read...', 'Black voters need to read...'), a phased timeline with media-buy cues ('on the go', 'on social media', 'on cable'), and links to ad assets. This goes far beyond a standard press kit or voter persuasion page, and the audience is plausibly a super PAC or independent-expenditure group.

Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page

  • Michigan is a heavy absentee vote state, and voters need to read and see on the go about Donavan McKinney before they cast their ballots.
    Directive about what voters should see and the channel ('on the go') implies media-buy guidance for outside groups.
  • White voters need to read and see his progressive validators. Black voters need to read and see about his community ties.
    Segmented audience with prescribed messaging, a key red-boxing signal.
  • Very Early (Weeks 11-9) ... Voters under 50 and voters searching for information need to see on the go and on social media our positive message
    Timing and channel instructions for specific voter segments, typical of media-buy guidance.
  • If resources allow, voters should see on cable our contrast message.
    Explicit channel recommendation (cable) for paid advertising.
  • Key zip codes HERE
    Geographic targeting instruction for ad placement.
  • Assets: Link to stills, Link to b-roll
    Provision of ad-ready assets (stills, b-roll) for outside groups to use in paid media.
Archived screenshot of https://www.donavanforcongress.com/media
Archived at detectionFull-page screenshot of https://www.donavanforcongress.com/media · Raw HTML preserved

Independent-expenditure corroboration

FEC Schedule E · 14 filings

Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected (by us) on 2026-07-09; $708,732 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate.

Committee AmountFilingsDate range
S NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION $400,000 1 2026-06-17 – 2026-06-17
S JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC $223,168 4 2026-06-22 – 2026-07-02
S WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC $50,000 1 2026-06-23 – 2026-06-23
S EMGAGE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $35,454 4 2026-06-19 – 2026-06-30
S THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC $100 3 2026-01-08 – 2026-01-25
S SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION $10 1 2026-04-16 – 2026-04-16

S Supporting O Opposing

Schedule E is corroboration, not the trigger — a filed expenditure is late evidence, and our detection timestamp reflects when we crawled, which can lag the actual posting. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $0. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.