Published July 13, 2026 · Updated with each build
Red Box Watch

A public ledger of red‑boxing — campaign‑site signals to super PACs

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Finding House · Arizona Democrat

Treble, Jonathan FINDING

Seat
H-AZ-01
Party
DEM
Universe reason
contested_primary
FEC receipts
$2,482,935 FEC
Campaign site
https://trebleforaz.com/ (unverified)
Pages scanned
15 · last 2026-07-09

Posted public messaging guidance consistent with red-boxing

Detected on https://trebleforaz.com/media  · classifier confidence 0.95 · model fireworks/deepseek-v4-flash

The page provides explicit media-buy guidance: it specifies voter segments (registered Democrats, unaffiliated, under-40s), channels (mailboxes, on the go, text), timing (weeks 3 and 2), and a prescribed message attacking opponents. This is directed at outside groups who would run paid advertising, not at voters or press. The presence of standard press kit elements (images, video) does not negate the clear red-boxing function.

Quoted evidence — verbatim spans from the page

  • Immediately, Across Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
    Geographic targeting directive for media buy
  • Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who voted in at least one of the last three Democratic Congressional primaries (2020, 2022, or 2024)
    Segmented voter audience for paid communication
  • All need to read in their mailboxes and see on the go that:
    Channel-specific media-buy instruction (mail, mobile/outdoor)
  • Additionally, Under 40s in those groups need to read via text in weeks 3 and 2.
    Timing and channel instruction for a specific demographic segment
  • Jonathan Treble is the only progressive candidate. He can be counted on to deliver on Medicare for All and hold the line with Democrats against Donald Trump. Marlene Galan-Woods and Amish Shah can not be trusted...
    Prescribed message theme and contrast framing for ads
Archived screenshot of https://trebleforaz.com/media
Archived at detectionFull-page screenshot of https://trebleforaz.com/media · Raw HTML preserved

Independent-expenditure corroboration

FEC Schedule E · 5 filings

Sequence. Messaging guidance was present on the candidate's site when detected (by us) on 2026-07-09; $247,117 in supporting independent expenditures is on file for this candidate.

Committee AmountFilingsDate range
S CRUSH MAGA PAC $247,117 5 2026-06-05 – 2026-07-06

S Supporting O Opposing

Schedule E is corroboration, not the trigger — a filed expenditure is late evidence, and our detection timestamp reflects when we crawled, which can lag the actual posting. Supporting IE dated on or after our detection day: $0. Dates are FEC expenditure dates.